The Armed Forces are preparing for the new, most intense phase of the war in the spring, writes The Guardian. Russia has been steadily building up its forces, while President Vladimir Putin is putting the economy on a military track to produce new tanks and missiles, the newspaper said. Observers note the first two phases of the war - the offensive from February 24 and an attempt at a war of attrition with the involvement of prisoners in combination with massive rocket attacks on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine.
"This second phase was almost as complete a defeat as the first. Russia used a large part of its arsenal of cruise missiles, and although the Ukrainian power grid is damaged, the lights are still on and the Ukrainian will to fight is not dimmed," writes The Guardian.
The third phase will soon begin - a battle for decisive superiority using combined arms - mechanized infantry, artillery, aviation and possibly landing forces. "The world hasn't seen anything like it since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, while Europe hasn't seen anything like it since World War II," the paper said.
A war of attrition
Despite the decision to decisively increase military aid to Ukraine by allies, there is growing concern in some Western capitals that time may be on Russia's side, writes The Wall Street Journal.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin's initial war plan was defeated last year, Western governments hoped that the longer the fighting went on, the more likely Ukraine would win and that Western sanctions would weaken Russia and force it to retreat. Now, the newspaper writes, with the approach of the first anniversary of the start of a full-scale war with Russia, this confidence is disappearing. Instead, "officials in some Western countries now fear that the Kremlin, which is ready to continue throwing men and equipment into battle, could win the long war of attrition."
Russia plans to launch a new offensive in the coming months, bringing in better-trained troops ready for heavy fighting, as evidenced by the Kremlin's recent successes near Bakhmut, the WSJ notes.
"Our calculations were based on the fact that Russia remains a huge country with much greater resources when it comes to soldiers and the ability to produce weapons that do not require Western components," said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, one of the main proponents of increased Western supplies. weapons. - The more time we give them, the more people... they will be able to throw at the Ukrainians."
Even the most successful offensive of either Russia or Ukraine in the spring is unlikely to end the war. Ukrainians have seen too much of Russia's intent to commit genocide on occupied territory to think about surrender, while Putin has made victory an existential issue for his regime, writes The Guardian. However, the offensive and counteroffensive over the next few months could be decisive in determining the trajectory of the conflict's continuation. Kyiv's success or failure will have an important impact on the resilience of those who support the country to continue to supply modern weapons, which are Kyiv's strategic advantage.
How Western tanks will affect the course of the war
Some observers, including the former commander-in-chief of NATO's combined armed forces, James Stavridis , believe that Abrams tanks from the USA, Leopard 2 from Germany and other countries, and Challenger 2 from Great Britain will play a key role in supporting the defense of Ukraine. In his opinion, the transfer of tanks marks a "turning" moment in the land war.
And the former commander of the US Army in Europe, Ben Godges, and the former Supreme Commander of NATO's combined armed forces in Europe, Wesley Clark , agree that Ukraine will even be able to liberate Crimea, although for this the armed forces need offensive weapons, in particular fighter jets.
However, on the issue of tanks, experts point out that a new Russian offensive may begin before Kyiv receives the first British or German tanks, as it may take months to train the Ukrainian military and deliver this equipment.
Currently, Ukrainian tankers have arrived in Great Britain for training in working with Challenger 2, the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom reported. But the delivery of American Abrams tanks to Kyiv "will take many months," White House spokesman for national security John Kirby said the other day. He did not specify whether Ukraine will receive the declared equipment by the end of 2023, but in the meantime, according to him, a batch of German Leopard tanks will arrive in Ukraine.
The daughter will remain a priority
The other day, the representative of the press service of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Andriy Yusov said that Donetsk remains the main direction for Russian forces.
"After another personnel reshuffle in the occupation army, one of the key tasks for Gerasimov from Putin is the complete occupation of the Donetsk region by March. This means that the Donetsk direction and the situation in the east will continue to be the hottest. The rest - we are now seeing an escalation in the Zaporizhzhia region, at other points, - Yusov is quoted by RFE/RL. "From a propaganda point of view, from the beginning of the invasion, the 'protection' of Donbas, of these quasi-formations of the 'LPR' and 'DPR', was one of the key motives of Putin's propaganda."
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently reported that Moscow may be preparing for an offensive in the east involving mostly regular forces. But knowledge of the arrival of new tanks will give Ukrainian commanders more freedom to use their current stockpile of equipment, ISW notes.
But, as CNN writes , although American and German tanks may arrive in Ukraine for a long time, they will help the Ukrainian army to modernize. "Ukraine probably won't join NATO anytime soon, but it will be armed like a NATO country," which could allow Ukraine to integrate more quickly into Western logistics and maintenance systems.
"Ukraine will not only have the ability to defeat the Russian army [..] but its armed forces will act as a deterrent to any further attacks by a re-armed, revanchist Russia in the future. This will guarantee the security of Ukraine, and therefore Europe, for the next decade," wrote Frank Ledwidge, a military expert from the British University of Portsmouth.
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